The international system has entered a phase of “new disorder,” marked by weakened multilateral institutions, intensifying great-power competition, and regional crises that are increasingly difficult to contain. The war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, with the fragile balance in Gaza, are reshaping European security and placing growing pressure on the EU’s and Italy’s energy, military, and financial resources.

At the same time, rivalry between the United States and China is increasingly playing out in the realms of geoeconomics and technology—through tariffs, sanctions, and controls on semiconductors and critical technologies—leading to the fragmentation of value chains and markets. Donald Trump’s return to the White House heightens uncertainty over transatlantic relations, while the Global South seeks to exploit new room for maneuver between competing blocs.

For Europe and for Italy, this new disorder creates a dual constraint: safeguarding security, competitiveness, and internal cohesion while simultaneously redefining their role between the alliance with the United States and the management of relations with China and Russia, by revitalizing the centrality of the wider Mediterranean.

During this meeting, Federico Rampini will offer an interpretation of the main drivers of this disorder and their implications for security, the economy, and policy choices.
In particular, the meeting will focus on:

• from the “new disorder” to competition among powers: erosion of the liberal order, fragmentation of rules, and the regionalization of security and economic systems
• “systemic” wars on Europe’s borders: Ukraine, the Middle East, and the wider Mediterranean as permanent arcs of crisis for Europe and Italy
• Europe between strategic autonomy and the transatlantic alliance: common defense, the defense industrial strategy, and relations with NATO, the United States, and China
• Italy’s positioning and its role in the Mediterranean.